Why No Theory of Consciousness Has Won — and What Mathematics Says About It
In April 2025 Nature published the results of the COGITATE project — the largest adversarial experiment in the history of consciousness science. 256 participants, three neuroimaging modalities (fMRI, MEG, iEEG), two years of work, two leading theories: Integrated Information Theory (IIT) and Global Neuronal Workspace Theory (GNWT). Result: both partially confirmed, both partially refuted. Neither won.
Thirty million dollars from the Templeton Foundation, hundreds of scientists, an impeccable protocol — and a draw. One can view this as a failure. Or as a diagnosis: the problem is deeper than either side thought. Each theory formalizes one aspect of consciousness and declares it the only one. The result is not competition between theories but an ill-posed problem. As if two blind men were describing an elephant, and the judges asked: "Who is right — the one who felt the trunk, or the one who felt the leg?"
This post is a mathematical analysis of the situation. Not a defense of "our" theory. A rigorous breakdown: why the COGITATE result was predictable, what category mathematics says about it, and what experiments could resolve the dispute.
